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US asset managers identify the trade war and recession risks, inflation, and DOGE actions as top concerns. Jerome Powell noted a low probability of recession despite increasing forecasts, but disappointing macroeconomic data and potential trade tax announcements dampen investor sentiment, leading to a significant rotation towards European equities. A decline in the Dow Jones and a drop to 39,000 points appear plausible under these conditions.
The Dow Jones halted its rally around the 45,000-point mark, echoing previous resistance levels from late last year. Following a bearish gap and recent trade negotiation extensions with Mexico and Canada, a decline to the 44,000-43,800 range could intensify downward pressure, potentially targeting 42,600 points.
The Nasdaq 100 has stabilized after a recent slump, finding support around the 20,600 level, though further gains above 21,500 are needed to confirm a low. The Dow Jones has rebounded, reaching a new one-month high, with targets set towards the 45,000 record zone. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 is holding above 39,000 after sharp losses, with a close above 39,500 potentially indicating a new upward trend.
The Dow Jones index reached its highest level since mid-December, with a potential push towards the 45,000 record high as buyers quickly absorbed intraday weakness. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 hit a one-month high, reflecting strong buying interest. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 rebounded to 40,000, supported by a solid defense around 38,250, with targets set at the late December peak of 40,419 and the July record high of 42,500.
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Donald Trump claimed that the stock market's growth was solely due to expectations of his victory. However, as he prepares to return to the White House, major Wall Street indexes have declined, raising questions about the validity of his assertions. Despite his rhetoric, market struggles appear linked to interest rates and Federal Reserve forecasts rather than political factors.
Bitcoin has experienced a 5% price drop, falling below the $100,000 mark and finding temporary support around $96,000. Analysts suggest it may decline further to approximately $93,800 due to correlations with major U.S. stock index sell-offs and recent outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs. As the market remains bearish, Bitcoin's price could continue to track these declines before potentially rebounding.
The Dow Jones ended a nine-session decline, gaining 0.04% amid oversold conditions, with only 15% of Russell 3000 stocks above their 20-session moving average. Market attention is on the upcoming US PCE price index and employment reports, with a potential rebound expected. Entry points are suggested at 42,000, targeting 44,000, with a stop at 41,500, indicating a favorable risk/reward ratio of 4.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, bringing the range to 4.25 to 4.50 percent, amid rising inflation concerns and increasing uncertainty about the US economy. While 227,000 new non-farm jobs were created, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. Investors are now focused on upcoming GDP data and consumer confidence indicators.
The Dow Jones experienced its largest one-day drop in over two years following the Federal Open Market Committee's decision, marking its worst losing streak since 1974 with ten consecutive days of losses, though it managed to stay above 42,000. The S&P 500 also hit a one-month low but is holding around mid-November levels, with potential for recovery if it avoids further declines. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 rebounded sharply, surpassing 39,000 and eyeing the key 40,000 resistance level.
The Santa Claus trading window, starting December 24 and ending January 3, historically leads to a stock market rally, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain and positive 79% of the time. Factors supporting a bullish outlook include December's strong performance, expected Fed interest rate cuts, and signs of oversold stocks.
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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